There are a few “countries” that come up with me:
- The Republic of China: Also known as “Taiwan”.
This country is currently only recognized by 16 states, including countries such as the Vatican City and the Pacific Islands. Although it is doubtful whether it can be seen as an independent country instead of part of the People’s Republic of China, its own government is actually carrying out authority over the island. However, the People’s Republic is keen to regain Taiwan’s full return to the motherland, and preferably for 2049, when the People’s Republic celebrates its 100 year anniversary. Recently, Wei Fenghe, the Chinese defence minister, has announced that China is seeing the use of force as an option to achieve this goal. [1
In the south of the country, Islamic groups have power in some areas while in the north the government of the self-proclaimed state of Somaliland constitutes the de-factogovernment.The weakness of the Somali Government has also contributed to the formation of terrorism and extensive piracy in and around the country. Somalia is a country that may no longer exist in 25 years, or in its current form.
(Map of: Somalia-Wikipedia)
- Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Maladiven and several island States in the Great and Indian Ocean: Many of these countries are only a few meters to centimeters above sea level.
It is predicted that in 2050 the sea level will rise by half a metre. Countries such as Tuvalu, where many islands are often but around 40 centimeters above sea level, can disappear in the ocean there is no measures to be taken. [2
DISCLAIMER: I am not trying to make any political judgement about the future of these States or other States that may be able to play a role in this.I am only trying to find out what developments are now playing.
‘, ‘ The best contenders are the states that are the most artificial.Where the formation of countries such as the Netherlands, France, Iran, China and Ethiopia has seized hundreds to thousands of years, many African States and States in the MO have been flanked by the major powers, of course, especially to their own interests. The most important candidates are countries that are unstable, artificial creations, and ethnically heterogeneous are:
- Somalia , which has in fact been disintegrated.
What I also do not understand is that no country wants to recognise the most successful successor state of Somalie: Somaliland.
Iraq is a similar case but is still being held up BY the USA and neighbouring countries.
North Yemen was once an independent Zaidi-imamate and we now see that the Zaidis again control the former North Yemen. South Yemen was a hodgepodge of smaller Arab states, and we also see here that the South has again become a hodgepodge of Salafi movements, the southern movement, and the government of Hadi.
Nigeria is a borderline case and seems able to preserve the unity, but time will tell. “,” Let me give some possibilities.
- Burundi, South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania These have a partnership called the East African community and have many ambitions to create one state.
England has no administration, so all tasks delegated to the Boards of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are decided for England by the national parliament in Westminster. In this way, the Scots, Welshmen and Northern Irish people, through their national MPs, influence decisions that apply only to England. The breakdown by Brexit makes it complete. It could only be so that Northern Ireland and Scotland are so keen to remain in the EU that they declare themselves undistrable from the UK (although that may not be constitutionally, in theory the national parliament can even completely lift the administrative bases)
Could just lead to a split.
It goes up and down with the attention to the country, how long will this madness continue?
Unlike, for example, the PVV, UKIP, Brexit Party, AfD, FP脰 or Rassemblement National (formerly Front National), Lega is not a nationalistic party. Lega is actually called Lega Nord and seeks to decentralise tasks to and eventually secession of Padania, the northern, rich part of Italy. So they are not at all there to applaud Italian sovereignty as a PVV-er, they are precisely for the weakening of the Italian nation state, including through the federalisation of the EU, to create a Europe with regional L盲nder, so that they Can detach from the rest of Italy.
The two biggest parties this year are also again two Flemish-nationalistic parties, N-VA and VB, DS I see it happen so.
That difference is, incidentally, the same; But still the Spanish-American states would do well to merge. On Mexico, Colombia and Argentina after all these countries are really super weak and there is no big difference. An option would be to create three states:
- Central America The countries between Mexico and Panama in its originally together became independent and fallen out early.
Together with Mexico, they could become a major Central American state. No idea if Belize would want to do that anyway. They would probably have to swear off Elizabeth as head of state.
I think that in view of this, Ecuador heard Oeru could do better.
Argentina and Uruguay in particular are very similar. The most logical of the already mentioned are Belgium, Northern Ireland, Somalia (with a lot of ‘ buts ‘), Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti and Sealand.This is because nature-driven change has little chance of leading to the disappearance of a government. If the regime loses territory in any way but still persists, it does not fit in the list. The focus is therefore on military, economic and political factors. Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maladiven are thereupon exceptions.
Countries such as North Korea and Taiwan lose their survival only with the beginning of the Third World War, therefore are not purely time-related and therefore do not fit in the list.Mali, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Cyprus have a situation where only formal wars will lead to the disappearance of these countries. Yemen is unique because it is de facto already split between the Saudis and Houthi’s, probably it will always survive as a puppet-box for the surrounding enthusiasts, but not disappear.
Annexation is rare and ‘ not done ‘.The future will consist of secession and revolution. Everything between an open democracy and a strict dictatorship is a rift of revolution.
I dare to say that all the countries that are now still exist in 25 years ‘ period.There are only a few exceptions. For these countries, there is a possibility that they will disappear. Without exception, it is quite recent political constructions, not in a framework of centuries formed countries.
I would like to confine myself to Europe.
Transdnjestrie: formed because Moldova became independent.
Moldova: This too, sometimes called Moldavia, can disappear because it is ethnically identical to Romania.
Northern Cyprus: Once the deadlock is broken and the whole of Cyprus is again 1 Greek Republic.
The country of the Belgians is also an artificial construction, unlike neighbouring Luxembourg with its millennial history.25 years is briefly seen the taboos around the lifting because of its location in the heart of Europe. Nevertheless, I do not consider it impossible. Basque Country, Scotland and Catalonia, on the other hand, can write independence on their belly, just like Friesland: They have been embedded for too long.
The USA.In fact, it does not already exist, at least two different countries: the states on the West Coast and the northern states on the east Coast on the one hand and the rest on the other side.
Something closer to home:
Belgium.Perhaps it is still a kind of United States of Belgium but Belgium is going to fall into three: Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels. Brussels becomes the Washington DC of Europe, Flanders saves it alone, the question is whether Wallonia remains independent or withdraws from France.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.The question is whether Scotland or Northern Ireland is the first to step up but the days of the United Kingdom have been counted.