Which countries could potentially benefit in a geopolitical way from far-reaching climate change (warming)?

An interesting but also very dangerous question.The danger is that we know our planet to a certain extent and it is therefore very difficult to predict exactly where any direct or secondary effect will occur.

Superficially, you might think that the big ‘ winners ‘ are going to be Canada, Russia and Greenland, because things are going to thaw there.But it can also be that the Gulf Stream ceases to flow and then half Europe is also a tundra. We don’t really know… In addition, even though Siberia and Nunavut are defrosted, it does not mean that it is so pleasant to be. The permafrost is going on and that will undoubtedly have major environmental impacts. Or they all seem to be so pleasant to us, but wait and see.

That is actually the fearful of the whole thing.We are working to play Russian roulette with our only habitable planet as a bet.

And yes the gun was loaded and yes the bullet is already underway.What the damage is going to be, is not yet clear.

Interesting question this.

First of all, I think of countries that are still too cold to be really productive.I am thinking of Russia in which Siberia possesses enormous potential in terms of agriculture and industry in a milder climate. Also large parts of Canada would go ahead. These countries would be able to offer the hundreds of millions expelled from the coastal regions a good existence and to take full advantage of and enormous additional production that yields it. Russia could feed a few billion people and put them to work and thus become by far the greatest economic and military power.

Higher countries can also be better prevented.If you look at Europe, the most densely populated areas (the Netherlands, Flanders, northern France, the south of England) will disappear and the higher countries will be able to take over the economic role.

The coming cooling you mean?

Cold is not good for humanity.Look at the Mauder minimum versus the Roman heat period.

Look at how many old kids are cold when there is a harsh winter in the UK. So who is better off?Countries around the Mediterranean Sea. They get a nice population from the northwest. And as we have all been rammed between the ears.. Immigration is good for you.

In the first instance the richest countries.

If the sea mirror rises, we simply raise the dikes here.Should it be too hot in Florida, they buy more air conditioners.

Instability in other parts of the world can also be most easily captured by richer countries.

In the longer term, the countries may be more likely to benefit from the Arctic circles.But the transition to a different climate will also cause more problems in these countries first.

It will take quite a long time for Siberia to change from a marshy tundra area to a more pleasant environment.

Perhaps there will be countries benefiting from a northern route to Europe for ships.This will make the Suez canal a little less important and thus shift the influence of that region to countries around the northern passage.

Russia and Canada will benefit from a slight warming (up to 1.5 掳) by:

  1. Better access to mineral resources in the Arctic
  2. Unlocking new agricultural areas
  3. Release of the northern shipping routes

There are no reliable models that can predict the effects of a stronger warming.It is likely that such warming would also be advantageous for the same two countries, but in Russia large infrastructure works would be needed to divert the excess water from Siberia to the Aral Lake or to North China, in order to avoid Siberia simply becomes one large swamp (now all rivers run to the north, since the estuaries are still frozen in the spring, the meltwater of the southern regions can not leave).

I do not think that specific isolated countries can benefit from this, because if the whole civilization collapses, perhaps even the concept of “land” is irrelevant.

Countries that do not suffer from flooding, extreme climate or food shortages will become the destination for the millions of refugees from the north and the south.

Central Europe can be one of these regions.But niece really “benefit” with two massive streams of refugees. One of the parts of Noor-Europe that come under water such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and northern Germany. And the second stream with people from southern Europe and Africa where life is no longer possible due to extreme heat.

Even in the case of a peaceful migration, the infrastructure and societies of those regions are under pressure.

And what if the migration does not happen peacefully?It would be no surprise if the millions of desperate people are not impressed by the anti-immigration wishes of the successors of Orban or the other Putint-Jes in Middle-Europe or until the Swiss have all the papers in order. And war is in no case good.

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