I’ve been a top 10 writer on the English Quora about Brexit for a while.
The main points
- No political party in Europe has an exit more openly in the program or you are not very clever busy.
We have to pay a little more to the EU budget. But for now not yet.
This means that Merkel & Macron could invariably sweep the trade war from their pavement. The British are angry that they had to talk to Dublin and not to Berlin.
For example, the French and the Germans are not as very pro an “Open Federation” as the British and the Dutchman do.See also this piece by Ken Mifsud Bonnici on “European Federation“
He has played an important political role behind the scenes to let it all run off with a sudhi. You have to understand that Ireland, Benelux, Denmark and the Baltic States have a coalition within the EU. Together they are the same size as the UK.
And then I mean 芒 鈧?”so huge a lot 芒 鈧? that the national level does not give the best analyses.
It’s not nice for Rotterdam. It’s not fun for the just-in-time industries. Think about half the hit of 2008, which led to the previous recession.
Anyway, a lot of British companies (and Japanese fled Sony and Panasonic) come to the Netherlands, without having to reduce the dividend tax. But that really depends on the association treaty that is going to be negotiated.
To say that limiting free movement of persons is a trade war and restricting free trade (and that is true). They attract them badly.
Because of the footbalification of the debate. Either they are ashamed or deep, or they scream slogans.
But more importantly…
It is January 2019.The British are far from knowing what kind of Brexit they want. And then they should be April 2019. Not much time so. Before then, they should have solved all these questions to understand if Brexit is less or better.
The above chart shows the consequences of a simple “worse before better” investment decision.
Explanation: You stop there “what” in the beginning, you get “what” out in time.The estimation of the profitability of Brexit depends on the difference (discounted at market interest rates over the maturity). The British do not know exactly what it costs, even less what it is going to deliver. We do know that in any way, part of the costs and revenues are leaking to the rest of the EU. We also know that the British are still wealthy and do not intend (beggar-thy-neighbour) to compensate the EU for the leaked costs or disappointing proceeds of Brexit. A possible association treaty will force the UK to use these shadow prices.
- The legislation for any Brexit will never be ready in time.
That is to apply for postponement.
Think of an election with the choice 芒 鈧?艗who is there for PvdA and who is opposed 芒 鈧?and then say that the SGP has thus won.
Because afraid of political perfor.
So which Brexit?We have to wait and see.
There are four major effects that the Netherlands will start to feel in a Brexit, in any form (with a deal or a no-deal).
- Politics: The UK has always been a guarantor for the Netherlands within Brussels.
The reason that May first talk to Rutte before going to Brussels is not because the Netherlands is the center of the universe, but because the Netherlands is also a guarantor for the UK. After all, the Netherlands has worked considerably to attract the UK to the EU (despite violent protests from the French, De Gaulle still cried, “Those British, you cannot trust!”).This is to prevent the EU from purely the Franco-German axis plus satellite states. With the UK, the Netherlands suddenly got weight in Brussels and the British supported the Dutch ambitions for expansion of the EU (the more small countries there, the more weight the Netherlands can put in the scale as a counterbalance to the Franco-German axis). That the British were interested in expansion, but never in integration, we took on the sale. We did understand that the British are still very much in the imperialist school, and the EU saw it as a kind of commonwealth. At the same time, with its Calvinistic liberal tradition, the Netherlands has much more to do with the Anglo-Saxon liberal school than with, for example, the French or the legalistic methodology of the Germans. A fall from the UK would mean that the Netherlands will have to look for guarantors and tributaries elsewhere.
For example, there are a number of ‘ shared ‘ companies: Unilever, Koninklijke Shell and Akzo Nobel to name but equal the greatest. A hard Brexit, where without agreements the UK is tumbling out of the EU, would mean, for example, that the lucrative export of pork (where North Brabant is especially dependent) would come to a halt. Not so much silent, but there could be a surplus that would tumble prices for a lot of pig cycles. Since the advent of the steam train, the UK has for the most part become dependent on Brabants pork (the Osse families Van den Bergh (later Unilever) and Zwanenberg (later Akzo Nobel, Organon, Zwanenberg Food Group) are large and very rich with Become). And that’s just the pork, other agricultural products (from tomatoes to flowers) found at the British, given the short distance between the Netherlands and the UK, and the fact that their agricultural sector has never reached the level of the Dutch, eagerly Deduction.
For the British it has proved very useful. The Netherlands has a large deep-sea port, the UK does not. Large container ships and bulk carriers like to be here, to be skipped on lorries and smaller ships that commute between the UK. In case of a hard Brexit, this could be a lot harder. No idea how the British are going to solve that themselves, as yet there is a lot of money in it, but there is still no significant deep-sea port in their islands.
The Netherlands is often a good candidate because it is close, have more similarities in culture than with the French or the Germans. I emailed several suppliers and subcontractors in the UK last week, and the lion’s share is either going to Frankfurt or Amsterdam, or has just bought an office and position in Frankfurt or Amsterdam. All votes are counted: 52 percent vote for Brexit
PS the only mid-segment car that the British ever made, which did not put in its disintegration after 90 days with the showing of signs of an irreversible oxidation process, was the legendary Vauxhall Viva (1973).So they could partially slow down their decay by making their auto芒 鈧劉 s themselves, instead of letting Opels in Germany under the name Vauxhall. Massa芒 鈧劉 s new jobs and swarms of garage owners to restore them with chewing gum and iron wire.
Whatever they do, it may be the ES once…
It also affects B2B companies that do business (exporting) through e-commerce with companies in the United Kingdom.For example, it affects:
- The supply of products (in view of stricter border controls)
- Shipping costs are also more expensive (higher import duties have to be passed)
- Product requirements change and fall under a UKCA logo instead of CE logo
- More administrative hassle
Read more about the exact consequences and whether there are also positive consequences.