Of course it is difficult to give an answer because 10 years is, certainly in the technology landscape, a long time.
There are a number of cases of influence, such as adoption and the possible regulation from Governments.
Adoption by the general public as a means of payment is only possible if volatility becomes less.It doesn’t work as well as you buy a TV today for (excluding) 500 euros which, a few days later, suddenly cost 20% less because the price is dimmed.
As ‘ Digital Gold ‘, Bitcoin is increasingly taken seriously by investors.Wall Street has been waiting for months with Smart on the first ETF, but this has been suspended for 2nd time by the US SEC; Institutional investors in the US are now officially unable to invest in Bitcoin, but as soon as this approval comes one expects a lot of liquidity which will greatly increase the ‘Marketcap‘ of bitcoin.
In addition to attempts at regulation, Bitcoin (and other crypto) is regularly done in the ‘ ban ‘ by a country in one way or another.We have had China and now Russia are making all sorts of game rules.You may have Bitcoin but not trade it. The US government is also increasing rule, such as obliging KYC for Exchanges regarding the sender and recipient of coins.On the one hand, we want to prevent Bitcoin from being abused by criminals and terrorists, but regulation is also meant to be able to levy taxes. In America you pay only tax on realised returns and not as in the Netherlands about a fictitious return. In both cases, of course, you have to know who made the transaction.
Nevertheless, due to the decentralised network structure, a government cannot really do anything about the distribution and use of Bitcoin.There are plenty of ways to stay under the radar. Government interference, of course, influences the adoption and the course, because in greater interference it becomes more difficult to buy/sell Bitcoin and it nevertheless entails a certain degree of uncertainty; Especially if it is a big player on the world stage. There are also governments that are supporting Bitcoin, for example Japan, Switzerland and Germany.
Bitcoin has proven to be technically stable and safe.Nothing is perfect and there are things that can improve Bitcoin like scalability and Privacy. Both topics are high on the list of independent developers and parties who build solution ‘ on top ‘ of the Bitcoin network. For example, The Lightning Network is a ‘ layer2 ‘ solution that ensures that small transactions do not have to be authorized separately on the mainnet, but in batches. This allows for fast (and inexpensive) transactions.
There is no alternative to Bitcoin (BTC) If you look at the really decentralised setup and the fact that Bitcoin is of ‘ no one ‘. The network consists of so-called miners and nodes that move around the world.Not only in datacenters, but also in many people ‘ at home ‘. Similar to the Internet in small. The ‘ Slushpool ‘ has more than 200,000 connected miners and their hash rate is around 12% of the total network.With that fact the estimation has been made that there are around 1 million miners worldwide. In theory, the miners could ensure that, for example, more than the 21 million bitcoins can be made or that the ‘ chain ‘ is put back in time. To change something a majority of all miners (consensus) is needed. The probability of these fundamental matters being adapted I consider very unlikely.
The values will increase by scarcity; The so-called ‘ halving ‘ principle will amount to that.Every 210,000 blocks (is about 4 years) it becomes half harder to ‘ Minen ‘ a Bitcoin. So fewer Bitcoins are ‘ mined ‘ per block and because ‘ Minen ‘ also costs money these things will come back in the price. However, We will still have to take into account significant fluctuations in the price. It is expected that the time will expire and only few Bitcoins can be ‘ mined ‘, stabilising the price.
Now to an answer:
The likelihood that Bitcoin still exists over 10 years is quite large.Bitcoin is unique in its kind. Development is steadily continuing and that will also benefit user-friendliness, making it easier to use Bitcoins.