There is a chance of it, but that depends on all sorts of factors.Biggest is: What does the US win at this war? Pretty little. Stabilization cannot be enforced, just look at what happened in Iraq: emergence of ISIS.
Since Iraq is not so terribly stable, that is probably the reason that the embassy is partially emptied; Finally, there is a threat from Iran and Iraq cannot guarantee security.
It is mainly VS propaganda, a year ago the US stepped out of the alkoord that had closed TSS Iran, US, EU, Russia to name the main participants.With the propaganda they want to push the former allies (EU, Canada, UK) away from Iran.
The agreement responds to the trade needs of Iran and will considerably prolong the period in which Iran developed a nuclear weapon.It is assumed that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon inevitably but that by giving trade sinsentives, the development period will be considerably extended.
This gives extra time to developing various possible scenarios so that eventually even the development of a nuclear weapon could be waived.Although that is probably not realistic.
The Israelies, provided the necessary intelligence in their possession, will continue to attempt to destroy Iraneese production units with targeted air raids.
From the 1st day that no longer succeeds I fear an Israeli attack with nuclear weapons.You do not know what the consequences can be.
Because of the real Israeli threat of air strikes, Israelies have done it once before, Iran has invested enormously in air defense.And let the air attack now be just a standard US tactic. I do not believe that the US will put an important part of their air force at stake.
That is difficult to judge, but Donald Trump actually needs a serious conflict with another country to get more support from his population.At least, if he wants to be re-elected in 2020…
However, Iran is a dangerous opponent who can receive direct support from China and Russia, and it is only the question whether the rest of NATO wants to be involved in this conflict.The Americans will have to have very good reasons for that. Nor will Israel be happy because, as with the Gulf War, they are becoming involved in the conflict while they are not really too busy.
However, it is possible that Iran is currently experiencing pressure from ISIS fighters who have fled to Iran from neighbouring countries.Combine this with the Syrian rebels who are behind it and can now also sit on Iranian territory, looking for ISIS and safe for the Syrian government.
But what many forget is that in June 2014 Iran has already sent troops to Iraq to help Iraq defeat ISIS there.And successfully. ISIS and Iran are death enemies as Iran mainly contains Shia Muslims while ISIS are predominantly salafistic/Sunni Islamists. Such a bit similar to Catholics and Protestants at the time of just before the Inquisition…
This difference in faith also ensures that Iran has few allies on this planet because Iran and Iraq are actually the only countries where the Shiite doctrine is currently being followed.Oman hangs the Ibadic doctrine and the rest of the Muslim world are mostly Sunnis. This ensures that Iran is quite alone in this world, while the Sunnis are born out of the former caliphates and want to bring them back again. Therefore, ISIS calls himself a caliphate. The Sjia is in principle much more free for believers than the Sunna. In fact, interpretations of the Koran may be altered within the Sjia if it appears that they are not correct or do not fit within society.
This means that the Americans can receive support from surrounding Muslim countries with the exception of Iraq.Because Iraq is now beginning to become more Shiite. And that also explains the turmoil in Iraq because Iraq is unstable and is increasingly seeking support from Iran. There is a strong rapprochement between the two countries which means that the influence of Iran is increasing while the Americans lose influence. And the Saudis also lose part of their power.
I do not expect a complete war, but the Americans have to do “something” to stop the influence of Iran.The merging of Iraq and Iran is a possible future, as both countries are currently Shia.
There will be no war with Iran.
The American government is hungry for war, but is also not crazy enough to start WW3.This is not the first time that the US and Iran have both threatened to open fire.
Trump plays a dangerous political stunt with Iran and its allies.But neither Trump nor Ali Khamenei are crazy enough to shoot first
Hard to say, but chances are there. Especially because you have someone like John Bolton sitting in a place where you don’t want him and the only thing he always seems to want is war with Iran.Furthermore, it is not so good with the Trump “government”, so a distraction is needed to make the people one-heartedly. Although I have to say that this time it is not so good to have the people behind him because they know that Iran is another cake than Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran is 4 times as big as Iraq and has a strong army, which is ranked 8th in the world in terms of size. A war between the US and Iran could well be quite different from what is expected in advance.
There is no reason whatsoever for war with Iran-the country has so far held the anti-atomic weapons agreements and, as in 2003, it is now creating an atmosphere that necessitate war with that country.But in contrast to then it is mainly the US that creates those circumstances. Trump drew America from the aforementioned agreement (although I suspect that this was just to say a heel to Obama) that went fine and threatens other countries that do want to abide by the agreement. The situation has become unstable and this is only America’s merit.
It is a bit like the Kristallnacht in Nazi Germany: You take a rather insignificant event as an assassination attempt on a third-class diplomat (who was already investigated by the government because one doubted his sincere belief in Nazism) to a ” Eruption of folk rage “to create against the Jews and let the victims of that” folk fury “pay the damage and fined them in addition, too.
Again, hard to say if all this will lead to an Iran-VS war, the circumstances are going on, but I also believe that a war against Iran could cost the Trump government the upside.So, we’ll see it.