How long will Moore’s law last?

Your smartphone can do the work of a whole collection of gadgets.

It is a phone, a camera, a camcorder, a walkman, a clock, a wallet, a radio, a world map, a TV, a video recorder and a computer in one.

And remember, all a supercomputer does is crisp numbers.For this we owe “Moore’s Law”.

Named after Intel founder Gordon Moore, computing power doubles about every two years.

This has led to an exponential increase in computing power.

As you may know, “snowballs” exponential growth over time.It builds momentum and eventually leads to vertical gains, as you can see here:

In recent decades, computing power has more or less followed this path.

This is the driving force behind Moore’s law

Moore’s law states that the number of transistors that fit on a computer chip doubles every two years.

Transistors can be expected by computers.

The more transistors are loaded onto a chip, the more computing power it has.

This, too, has more or less come true over the last 50 years.As early as 1965, only 64 transistors fit the most complex computer chip in the world.

More than 10 billion transistors fit today’s chips.

Moore’s law is responsible for many of the huge price gains of recent decades.

A rise in computing power has enabled large disruptors such as Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon to achieve huge gains of 50,800%, 159,900%, and 111,560%.

Along the way, the companies that make the computer chips have also become rich.

Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron Technology and Intel posted gains of 1,014%, 3.256% and 35,050%.

Conventional wisdom is that Moore’s law will continue to snowball.As progress gets faster, you can understand why many people think we’re heading for a tech utopia.

It’s a great story.However, this is not entirely correct.

Moore’s law will collapse

Moore’s law is not really a law.Gravity is a law. Moore’s law is an observation and a prediction.

As I have already mentioned, this has been the case since 1965.But here’s the key …

In the next few years, Moore’s law will collapse.

They see, although today’s transistors are microscopic, they still require physical space.There is a limitation on how small you can make anything that occupies physical space.

With transistors, we approach this boundary.So the progress predicted under Moore’s law must slow down.

In fact, Moore’s law is already slowing.Many technologists predict that there will be a total outage between 2022 and 2025.

Does this mean that progress will stop?

Not a chance.

New technologies are being used where the Moore law ends.There are three exciting computer technologies in development that you should be aware of.

3D computing to be launched later this year

What does a city do when it becomes scarce on land?It builds skyscrapers.

By “building,” you can create properties with the floor space of a single-story building that can hold 100 times more people.

Something similar is just beginning with arithmetic.

You see, the bowels of computers were always two-dimensional.Flat computer chips sit on a flat motherboard. Nothing moves in 3D. There is no “high” or “down” in a computer chip.

That is now changing.In December, Intel (INTC) unveiled its new 3D chip technology. The sale is expected to begin later this year.

Tech reporters praise it as “how Intel will beat Moore’s law.”

Chips stacked in 3D are far superior to those placed side by side.You can not only place multiple transistors on the same footprint. You can better integrate all the functions of the chip.

This shortens the distance information required to travel.And many more ways are being created for the flow of information.

The result will be much more speed and performance in the tightest of spaces.After all, 3D chips could be 1,000 times faster than existing ones.

DNA computing is a bit further away, but its potential is insane

The DNA carries the instructions that enable life.

Incredible as it sounds, DNA can be used for data processing.In 1994, a computer scientist at the University of Southern California used DNA to solve a well-known mathematical problem.

A pound of DNA can store more information than any computer ever built.

A miniature DNA computer could theoretically be more powerful than today’s supercomputers.

I’m not going to delve deep into science here.DNA computing is still at a very early stage. But several companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), are working to advance the technology.

Quantum Computing Could Be the Ultimate Disruption

The science behind the quantum computer will bend your mind.To understand its potential, all you need to know is the following.

The basic unit of conventional calculation is the bit.The more bits a computer has, the more calculations can be performed at the same time and the more powerful it is.

In quantum computing, the basic unit of the calculation is called quantum bit or qubit.

Bits behave linearly.To get a 20-bit computer, you can add 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2.

Qubits are different.Each qubit doubles the computing power.

So a 10-qubit computer could perform 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 or 1,024 calculations simultaneously.

A 100-qubit quantum computer could perform more than 1,000 billion billion simultaneous calculations.These numbers are too big for people to understand.

In theory, a small quantum computer could exceed the power of a regular computer the size of the Milky Way.

With enough computing power, a quantum computer could solve any problem.

If we ever achieve distant goals such as weather control, colonization of Mars, or the reversal of human aging, quantum computing is likely to be the driving force.

There are no pure Quantum Computing shares

They are all private or have been bought by larger companies.

Many of the major technology providers are developing quantum computing technology.Microsoft, IBM, Google and Intel are just a few of them.

Google seems to be ahead of the curve.

In March 2018, the company unveiled its Bristlecone quantum processor, which the company believes could achieve “quantum superiority.”

Quantum superiority is the “turning point” for quantum computing.It is the point at which a quantum computer can beat a normal one in a useful task.

So far, scientists have not been able to crack this.However, once quantum superiority is achieved, progress should increase very quickly.

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