Do you think Trump will win in 2020 as much as he did in 2016?

Wow, there are 4 answers so far and 3 are clearly written from the perspective of the partisans.(One is basically “Trump is the best! Of course, he will win 48 out of 50 states!”. Another is basically “Trump is a fascist who will lose everywhere except in Alabama! If he doesn’t, accuse Russia and Fox News!” “)

Quora is about accurate information, and this nonsense of partisans is disheartening.So let me put aside my prejudices as a registered democrat, put on my political science hat and try to convey an analytical view.

Point 1: Trump lost the popular vote

Trump won in 2016 because of the Electoral College, not because he was extremely popular.He lost the popular vote by about 3 million votes. Chances are he would have lost a lot more if he had run against someone more popular. Hillary Clinton is arguably the most unpopular politician in America after Donald Trump. Many Democrats (myself included) voted for third parties or stayed home instead of pulling the lever for them.

Point 2: Trump won because of 3 states

As Trump pointed out, and as anyone who has graduated from high school, the plebiscite is not important.Let me say it again: the referendum does not matter. Anyone who rails against Trump as an illegitimate president for losing the popular vote has a regrettable lack of understanding of how American elections work. The decisive factor is who wins the Electoral College. Trump won the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which was enough to surpass him.

Map of the 2016 Election Vote Courtesy of Business Insider.

Point 3: Trump won these states by a very narrow margin

In Pennsylvania, Trump won by less than 70,000 votes (1.2% of the votes cast).

In Michigan, he won by less than 11,000 votes. 0.23% of the votes cast). In Wisconsin, he won by nearly 23,000 votes (about 0.77% of the votes cast).

If he had lost those three states, Clinton would be president.This is not even true of Florida, which has been incredibly close to each other over the past two decades. There he won with almost 114,000 votes (1.2% of the votes cast). If Clinton wins Florida, along with one of the three Rust Belt states that voted for Trump, she will win the election.

In other words, we are talking about a very, very narrow choice.Which brings us to …

Point 4: Trump must win these states again

Trump must win 2 of 4 state elections for the second year in a row (or 3 out of 4 if he loses Florida).I’ve seen some scenarios (Trump picks up Virginia or Minnesota) that could throw a wrench into the campaign plan. But none of this is likely. By and large, white suburban women hate Trump and they are the reason he lost Virginia. I have not seen anything to suggest that this is changing. Minnesota is solidly Democratic, and while they are populist, Trump has probably lost as much as he would have hoped in a blue state, with 45,000 votes.

Point 5: This is difficult to do, but not impossible

After the election, famed pollster Nate Silver came under fire for being “wrong” about the election.He was not wrong. He accurately predicted that Clinton had a 70% chance of winning. In the betting markets, the odds are just over 80%. However, 80% is not a guarantee.

Have you ever seen the weather forecast with a 20% chance of rain and then it rains?

Courtesy of the Toronto Star.

It happens.

In fact, it happens in 20% of cases. This is not very often, but it is more common than most people think. Would you get in your car to do an errand if you had a 20% chance of a fatal accident? No, you would take the bus. You’d take an Uber. You would go. But you certainly wouldn’t get in the car.

Could Trump now win one of the Rust Belt states?safe! I wouldn’t even be surprised if he won two of them. Could he win Florida again? safe! Is it likely that he will run the table or even get 3 out of 4? Not much. But it is possible.

Point 6: Voter turnout is important

One reason Trump won in 2016 was the gloomy turnout.As usual, Republican voters were older and whiter than the general population, and older and white people were more likely to vote than young people and minorities.

Will young people and minorities be made redundant in 2020 and vote in greater numbers?Or do they stay at home in large numbers as always? A lot depends on it. It doesn’t matter how low his approval ratings are when people who reject him decide to stay at home, play bowling or play video games when Election Day is over.

Point 7: Russia is a red herring

Did Russia interfere in our election?Of course they did.

Every country, everywhere, always tries to influence each other’s elections.The only way to avoid this is to become a one-party state or dictatorship. In 1996, it was widely known that the US interfered in the Russian election. yes. Payback is a slut, isn’t it?

Focusing on Russia is a waste of time.They will always interfere in our elections. We will always try to interfere in the others’. This is in the nature of the world. It won’t change if you get upset and outraged. Democratic activists should focus best on what they can control.

Cover of Time magazine, July 15, 1996.

Courtesy of Time magazine.

Point 8: Individual candidates are important

In my home state of New York, Andrew Cuomo recently won a third term as governor.This despite the fact that less than 50% of the population approve stake in its activities. It is a joke that he is the only successful politician in the country who has no supporters. Republicans hate him. Independents hate him. Democrats are at most willing to tolerate it.

And yet he has won three consecutive elections.why?

Because candidates are important.

And every time he’s up for election, people look at him, look at the Republican nominee, and the majority say, “The devil I know is better than the devil I don’t know.”

And this is not just a phenomenon of partisans, of the blue state.In 2008, people talked about the recently retired Republican governor of New York, George Pataki, as a potential presidential candidate. Hell, Republican Rudy Giuliani even won dark blue New York twice!

why?

Because candidates are important.

And so much as registered partisans believe they control elections, the fact is that a small number of independents can hold the balance.In addition, individual candidates can encourage their own voters to stay at home (see point 7).

Well, American politics is a kind of “taste of the moment,” so I can’t even predict what issues people will be thinking about after 16 months in the polling booth, but here are some examples of things that the Democratic nominee will be thinking about. based on today’s headlines:

Joe Biden wins elementary school.The far left will not accept him because he once worked with segregationists. Hundreds of thousands of black voters and awakened white voters stay at home or vote for third parties.

Kamala Harris wins primary school.The anti-weapons crowd will not accept it because it has a concealed carry permit. Hundreds of thousands of them stay at home or vote for third parties.

Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders wins elementary school.Trump hammers them on student loan forgiveness, pointing out that the beneficiaries will be mainly people with college degrees and good careers, while workers get nothing. Working-class voters standing on the fence are flocking to Trump.

Pete Buttigieg wins primary school.Hundreds of thousands of socially conservative black voters, Muslims and Hispanics stay at home or vote for third parties who don’t want to vote for Trump but are suspicious of electing an openly gay man.

I could go on and list the potential weaknesses of each of these candidates.My point is that getting liberals and progressives to agree on a candidate is an exercise. In 2016, the party imposed its handpicked candidates on voters with predictable results. In 2020, they will let people vote. We will see if the results are different.

It’s easy to say, “I support [my ideal version of a Democratic candidate versus Trump.” It’s harder to say, “I support [a particular candidate with certain views and a particular record with Trump and I’m willing to take time for that.””

Point 9: It’s the economy, stupid

Everything I have said will only remain true as long as the economy remains strong.If there is a recession between now and Election Day, Trump should lose “strongly.” He has virtually no error rate. A recession – or, God forbid, a war – will virtually secure a democratic victory.

Point 10: It will be closer than both sides would like to admit

At the end of the day, apart from some world-changing changes, the election will indeed look similar to 2016.The question is, can Trump lead the table again in the Rust Belt and Florida? The answer is, no one knows, and anyone who says they know, lies or has put their partisan head in the partisan.

It will be very, very close.My advice must be voted on. to turn up. Do your part. Pull the lever for the candidate you believe in.

The Statue of Liberty, rightly called “Freedom that enlightens the world,” represents America’s best ideals.

Courtesy of

mentalfloss.com .

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